Reports from retailers across many sectors indicate that consumers are trading down in their shopping behavior. With the housing downturn, weakening labor markets and surging energy costs, the trading down behavior is having a major impact on retailing, presenting opportunities for some chains and challenges for others.
According to Deborah Weinswig, Retailing / Broadlines, Food & Drug, and Home Improvement, Citi Investment Research, trading down behavior affects all consumers, which leads to belt tightening and bargain hunting, and can be broken down into four key bullet points.
"Trading Down" to Private Label
Private label has become more appealing to consumers, as the quality and packaging of store-branded products has
significantly improved. Prices are also typically 20% lower than like-branded items. Safeway Stores recently noted that its corporate brands have gained share and that this was an industry phenomenon. Similarly, Target commented that private label
penetration increased 300 bps in 2007 from 15% to 18%. BJ's and Costco both mentioned food and health and beauty products have gained market share.
"Trading Down" to Lower-Priced Products
Warehouse clubs and food retailers have all commented that they are experiencing trading down from "steak to chicken." With food inflation estimated to increase 3.5% to 4.5% in 2008, higher food prices will likely force more consumers to buy less expensive foods. The USDA forecasts could prove to be low, since food inflation was already 5.8% in January 2008.
"Trading Down" to Cheaper Channels
This type of "trading down" includes switching to lower-priced channels. Around the last recession, Wal-Mart outcomped Target almost every month (5/00-7/03) and that reversed when the economy strengthened (8/03-11/07). Now for 3 months in a row, we have seen Wal-Mart outcomp Target and we believe this is the beginning of a longer-term trend. This observation was part of the thesis for our recent downgrade of Target.
"Trading In" From Restaurants
In 2007, food-at-home share of the consumer's overall food expenditures increased for the first time since 2001 to 53.2% (the highest share since 1997), representing a +210 basis points year-over-year increase (the highest year-over-year increase in food-at-home share since the 1940s). Most recently, January food-at-home share further expanded to 54.6%.
In an economic climate as turbulent as this one, it is likely that luxury retailers will not significantly lose their shopper base and low price retailers stand to gain from the trading down shift. However, retailers in the middle of the spectrum are likely to feel the squeeze. Retailers such as Nordstroms, Tiffany's and Neiman Marcus in the luxury field and low-price, value retailers such as Wal-Mart, Costco and BJ's will capitalize on the shift. But mid-price retailers like Kohl's, The Gap and Target can expect to feel the affects of "trading down" behavior.
-Christina Zarrello