Even though there are bright spots beginning to shine a light on a dark economy, experts in real estate, one of the hardest hit industries, don't expect a full retail recovery until 2012. While retail sales are expected to rise in coming months and gradually improve, these experts say that sales and growth levels of 2007 will take years to match or surpass.

One key indicator to watch is in the commercial real estate industry, where there have been 8,300 store closings announced by retailers this year according to the Federal Reserve. This figure includes more than 1,500 large anchor stores. These come on top of a large number of store closings in 2008, which the International Council of Shopping Centers' 2008 says totaled 6,900.

"Until we see stabilization and recovery take root in both consumer spending and business spending and hiring, we do not foresee a recovery in the retail sector until late 2012 at the earliest," saysVictor Calanog, research director of real estate research firm Reis Inc. "Continuing job losses and inconsistent consumer spending patterns will weigh on retail properties for at least another 18 to 24 months."

Ann Taylor, Blockbuster, Gap, and Phillips-Van Heusen have contributed to the thousands of store closures in 2009, each announcing 100 or more store closures so far this year.

Some of the retailers announcing store closures in 2009 include:

Aeropostale: 11 Jimmy'Z stores
Ann Taylor: 163 stores
Bashas: 14 Bashas and Food City stores
Big 10 Tires: 32 stores
Blockbuster: 300 stores
Brown Shoe: 25-30 Famous Footwear stores
Chico's FAS: 25 stores
Cost Plus: 26 stores
Finlay: 40 stores
Gap: 100 stores
Home Depot: 48 stores
Phillips-Van Heusen: 175 stores
Pier 1 Imports: 125 stores
Sears: 28 stores
S&K Famous Brands: 79 stores
Starbucks: 300 stores
Steve Madden: 13 stores
Talbots: 20 stores
Wal-Mart Canada: 6 Sam's Club locations
Wet Seal: 16 Wet Seal and Arden B stores
Yankee Candle: entire Illuminations unit
Zale: 118 stores
Z Gallerie: 25 stores

Retail vacancies at U.S. shopping centers rose to a 17-year high as unemployment climbed, consumers cut spending and 8,300 stores closed. Vacancies at U.S. shopping centers increased 10.3 percent in the third quarter, the highest level since 1992, from 8.4 percent recorded in the same period a year ago according to according to Reis. Vacancies at regional and super-regional malls rose 8.6 percent from 6.6 percent a year earlier.

At enclosed malls, the vacancy rate rose to 8.6 percent, the highest since Reis began tracking mall data in 2000. Retail properties completed in 2009 hit the hardest, with 30 percent opened half-empty or worse.

Retail Lease Rates Plunge
As demand for retail space dropped, average retail lease rates continued to drop in the third quarter, down 3.7 percent to $16.89 per square foot for shopping centers, and down 3.5 percent to $39.18 for malls.

Occupied space at neighborhood and community shopping centers dropped by 5.3 million square feet in the third quarter while developers added less than 600,000 square feet that went empty, said Reis.

At regional and super-regional malls, asking rents fell to $39.18 a square foot from $40.62 a year earlier. The 3.5 percent decline represents the worst year-over-year deterioration in a decade, said Reis.

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